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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.