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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|